Figure Investment
Thesis
Figure – Humanoid Robots on the Frontier of Labor Automation
Figure is an ambitious robotics startup developing general-purpose humanoid robots designed to work alongside (or in place of) humans in various manual labor roles.
Mission and Founding: The company was founded in 2022 by Brett Adcock, a serial entrepreneur who co-founded Archer Aviation. Adcock started Figure with a clear mission – to “liberate humans from manual labor and enhance global productivity.” Frustrated by labor shortages and inspired by advances in AI and electric motors, he invested $100 million of his own money to get the venture off the ground. Figure’s vision refers to science fiction: human-sized robots that can eventually do “unsafe and undesirable jobs,” allowing people to focus on higher-level or creative tasks. In the company’s early days, a small team of engineers in Sunnyvale, California, set an audacious goal: build a bipedal, autonomous humanoid that can walk and perform basic work tasks within one year of founding. By mid-2023, Figure 01, the prototype, was indeed walking, and the company began showcasing its potential in simple scenarios. In an industry known for broken promises, Figure’s rapid prototyping and high-profile backers (attracting talent from places like Boston Dynamics and Tesla) distinguished it. Over 2023–2024, Figure evolved from a concept on paper to delivering actual robots for pilot programs. The introduction of Figure 02 – a refined second-generation humanoid – demonstrated notable improvements in dexterity and autonomy, signaling the company’s iterative approach to reaching its ultimate goal: a general-purpose robot for everyday environments.
Technology and Business Model: Figure’s business model is still emerging (as the company remains pre-revenue), but it centers on developing humanoid robots that can be deployed in the workforce as a service or product. In the near term, Figure targets commercial applications like warehouse logistics, manufacturing, and retail fulfillment – domains where labor needs are high and the environments can be semi-structured. The idea is that a Figure humanoid could be “dropped in” to a warehouse and trained to perform repetitive tasks such as lifting and stacking boxes, pushing carts, or packaging goods. Unlike task-specific industrial robots, Figure’s robots are meant to be multipurpose and adaptable, which is a key differentiator. They utilize advanced AI models for vision and motor control, aiming to learn a variety of tasks rather than being pre-programmed for only one. “We believe general-purpose humanoid robots have far more potential than single-purpose robots,” says Adcock, contrasting Figure’s approach with robots confined to just cleaning floors or just assembling one part. Technologically, Figure integrates cutting-edge hardware (actuators, sensors, batteries) with a proprietary AI software stack named Helix that combines vision, language understanding, and motor skills. Helix uses a two-part “brain” – a slower reasoning module and a fast reaction module – to enable the robot to plan tasks and respond in real-time to changes. The combination handles complex, unstructured functions like picking up various objects or responding to voice commands in a home setting. For revenue, Figure is likely to pursue a Robots-as-a-Service model, charging companies a usage or rental fee for each robot deployed rather than selling multimillion-dollar units outright. This would make humanoid labor more akin to hiring a temp worker – a compelling pitch if the robots prove effective. In February 2025, the company even hinted at plans to eventually put humanoids in homes for domestic chores, which could open a vast consumer market. For now, its business strategy is focused on vertical integration: owning the design and production of the robots and controlling the AI that powers them to ensure the pieces work seamlessly together. This is resource-intensive, but Figure’s leadership and investors believe that a full-stack approach is necessary to crack the challenge that no one has solved – a commercially viable humanoid.
Recent Funding and Valuation: Despite being nascent, Figure has attracted staggering levels of investor funding, underscoring the excitement around its frontier technology. In May 2023, the company raised $70 million in a Series A led by Parkway Venture Capital (with Adcock contributing $20 million), reportedly valuing the one-year-old startup at over $400 million. That was just the beginning. By early 2024, rumors swirled – later confirmed – that Figure secured a $675 million Series B round, valuing the company at $2.6 billion. This investor syndicate was a who’s who of tech: participants included Microsoft, OpenAI’s Startup Fund, Nvidia, Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund, Jeff Bezos (through Bezos Expeditions), Parkway Venture Capital, Intel Capital, and ARK Invest. The round, announced in February 2024, is one of the largest ever for a robotics startup, giving Figure a war chest to accelerate development. With this raise, Figure’s total funding exceeded $800 million within two years of founding. Industry observers noted that such “mega-funding” reflects both the high capital needs of humanoid robotics and the fervor surrounding AI advancements. By early 2025, Figure’s valuation was reportedly climbing further amid talks of additional strategic investment – one report suggested the company was in discussions to raise as much as $1.5 billion at an eye-popping $10+$ billion valuation (though such a deal hasn’t been publicly confirmed). Clearly, Figure has quickly become one of the best-funded private robotics companies ever. The influx of capital is being poured into scaling up its operations: hiring talent (the team has grown to around 80+ employees), building manufacturing and testing facilities, and iterating on hardware prototypes. As of 2025, the company is still pre-commercial, so traditional metrics like revenue or profitability are not applicable – its value is based on technology milestones and strategic partnerships. One tangible milestone: by late 2024, Figure delivered its first robots to a paying commercial customer (BMW) for pilot testing on an assembly line. If expanded, this kind of early customer validation will be crucial to justify the sky-high valuations and convert them into sustainable business value.
Growth Trajectory and Milestones: In just a short time, Figure has moved fast and set an aggressive roadmap. A central proof point was the successful demonstration of Figure 02 robots working at a BMW auto factory in South Carolina. During these trials (the first time BMW used humanoid robots in production), the Figure 02 units autonomously picked up sheet metal parts and placed them into fixtures for assembly tasks that require fine motor control and awareness of dynamic environments. This showed that Figure’s robots could handle real-world industrial materials with “particular tactile capabilities,” as BMW’s production chief noted. Building on this, Brett Adcock announced that Figure plans to produce 100,000 humanoid robots in the next few years – an eye-opening target that equates to scaling manufacturing at an exponential rate.
To manage growth, Figure wisely focuses on a few key clients and use cases initially. “Early on, it’s more efficient for us to grow vertically within a few clients than to spread out across many,” Adcock explained. This strategy means that Figure will deepen deployments (more robots per site and solving multiple tasks for one client) with partners like BMW and potentially a couple of large warehouse operators or retailers, rather than signing up dozens of customers without delivering full value. It effectively makes those initial clients testbeds for refining the robot in different scenarios. In parallel, the technology is rapidly advancing: Figure 02 reportedly has three times the computing power of its predecessor and improved hands nearing human hand dexterity (16 degrees of freedom). The robots are becoming more power-efficient and capable of longer autonomous operation, critical for commercial viability so they can work long shifts. The company’s AI stack, Helix ,also leaped by decoupling from a prior partnership with OpenAI and developing entirely in-house, indicating Figure wants complete control over the “brains” of its robots. Market-wise, global interest in automation is only growing: labor shortages in warehousing, an aging workforce in many countries, and recent supply chain disruptions have all made companies eager for robotic solutions. The Figure appears to be riding this wave, frequently cited alongside efforts by Tesla (Optimus robot) and others as leading a “race to develop the next commercially viable humanoid robot.” If it hits its milestones, Figure could, within a few years, have hundreds of robots performing valuable work, which would mark a historic inflection point in the robotics industry. Its stated long-term goal is nothing short of bringing a general-purpose humanoid into everyday life, perhaps akin to the personal computer revolution but for embodied AI. While that endgame might be a decade away, the current growth steps – securing big partners, improving capabilities, and scaling production – are the building blocks. One should note that growth for a company like Figure is not measured just in revenue but in the performance metrics of the robots: more tasks are mastered, the mean time between failures is improved, and greater autonomy is achieved. The progress from a walking prototype to completing pilot programs in under two years is impressive by those measures.
Competitive Landscape and Market Trends: The quest for humanoid robots has several players, but Figure has quickly emerged as a leading player. Competitors include well-known robotics firms such as Boston Dynamics (famous for its Atlas humanoid, though it’s still in R&D with no commercial offering) and newer startups like Agility Robotics, 1X Technologies, and Apptronik, all of which are developing humanoid or semi-humanoid robots targeting logistics. Tesla announced a humanoid project (Optimus) in 2021 and demonstrated early prototypes, leveraging its expertise in manufacturing and AI. Each competitor has a slightly different approach: for example, Agility’s Digit robot is bipedal but with limited arms, focusing on warehouse tote lifting; 1X developed a humanoid with wheels for efficiency; Tesla aims to eventually use its robots in its factories. Figure’s competitive edge appears to be the breadth of its vision, combined with substantial funding and partners. Unlike Boston Dynamics’ approach of pushing the envelope of agility (often in awe-inspiring demos), Figure is very market-focused, targeting practical tasks and cost-effectiveness. Tesla’s Elon Musk projected that Optimus could cost under $20,000 per unit in a few years, and Figure will likely need to hit a similar price point or service cost to compete in replacing human labor (for reference, a human worker might cost $30k–$50k/year fully loaded in a warehouse job). The market trend strongly favoring Figure and its peers is the widespread labor shortage and rising labor costs in logistics, e-commerce fulfillment, elder care, and manufacturing. Developed countries face demographic pressures (aging populations, fewer young workers for physically demanding jobs), and globally, there’s greater reluctance to do repetitive manual work if better opportunities exist. This translates to a huge potential demand for robotic labor.
Additionally, the technology trend of AI advancement (particularly in vision and reinforcement learning) is making what was impossible now feasible – robots can see and make decisions much better than a decade ago, thanks to deep learning. Cloud computing and custom AI chips (like those from Nvidia, an investor in Figure) allow running sophisticated models on the robot or with low latency. One competitive challenge is that traditional industrial robot companies (Fanuc, ABB, etc.) provide proven machines for specific tasks (like robotic arms for welding or palletizing). Humanoids won’t replace those well-optimized solutions; instead, they will compete to do tasks that still require human versatility. So, the market might not be winner-take-all – it’s more about expanding automation into new frontiers. Figure has signaled it will focus on certain domains first (like logistics) and not spread itself too thin. That focus is wise because the competitive field will determine who can deliver results in a given application. If Agility’s biped excels in stockroom shelf restocking but Figure’s robot shines in parcel sorting, each could find its niche. Investor sentiment is another factor: with heavyweights like Amazon and Microsoft betting on different companies (Amazon in Agility, Microsoft in Figure), multiple parties believe humanoids are coming of age. This validates the market but also sets up a race. Figure’s partnership with BMW hints it may have an edge in automotive manufacturing use cases, while others might pursue retail warehouse deals (Agility works with Ford, for instance). A noteworthy trend is the convergence of AI and robotics – companies like OpenAI (an investor previously allied with Figure) are interested in training AI agents in physical form. If Figure’s platform becomes a leading physical instantiation of advanced AI, it could attract an ecosystem of software developers or content (like how apps emerged once smartphones became ubiquitous). In summary, the competitive landscape is dynamic: Figure is currently among the frontrunners due to its funding, vision, and early achievements, but competition will intensify as technology matures. The next few years – moving from prototypes to actual deployed fleets – will likely determine which companies secure the biggest partnerships and break the commercialization barrier.
Risks and Challenges: Pursuing a dream as grand as general-purpose humanoid robots comes with substantial risks. The first is technical risk: despite progress, creating a robot with human-like versatility and reliability is difficult. Humanoids must integrate locomotion, manipulation, perception, and real-time decision-making. There’s a risk that some tasks remain too hard or the robots can’t operate for long periods without human intervention or maintenance. For instance, maintaining balance while carrying awkward loads or handling unpredictable objects (a squishy bag vs. a metal part) requires extremely robust AI and engineering.
Any high-profile failures or safety incidents (e.g., a robot dropping a part or colliding with a person) could set back confidence and adoption. Cost and scalability are also challenges – even with hundreds of millions in funding, Figures must be designed for cost efficiency to hit unit economics that makes sense. It’s one thing to build a few $1M prototypes; it’s another to mass-produce robots cheaply. This entails supply chain management for actuators, sensors, and chips that are not yet commoditized. There’s a risk that costs don’t drop as fast as anticipated, which would limit deployment or force a different pricing model. Conversely, if demand outstrips their manufacturing ability (a “good” problem, but still a problem), managing rapid scale-up could strain operations. Another risk is talent competition – AI robotics is hot, and retaining top scientists and engineers is crucial. Figure’s investors and excitement give it an edge in hiring, but it competes with well-funded peers and big companies’ robotics labs for the same pool of experts. Market adoption risk also looms: some industries may resist humanoid robots for cultural or practical reasons. Companies might initially hesitate to trust expensive robots with critical operations, or labor unions might push back against job displacement. The Figure must demonstrate capability, reliability, and safety to win over skeptics. Public perception is another challenge – while society is fascinated by humanoids, there are fears (often exaggerated) about robots “taking jobs” or even concerns about AI control. Figure has to navigate the narrative carefully, emphasizing augmentation of labor rather than pure replacement, to gain public acceptance. In intellectual property, there’s a risk of patent or trade secrets issues; competitors like Boston Dynamics have patents on certain locomotion technologies. A misstep could lead to legal challenges. Lastly, the company is subject to the classic startup risk of execution: aligning its bold promises with delivery. Expectations are sky-high, given the funding and statements. If Figure were to fall short or be significantly delayed (which has happened historically in robotics), it could face a credibility hit that makes fundraising or sales harder. In sum, while Figure has momentum, it must overcome a convergence of robotics’s hardest problems – technical, economic, and social – to fully succeed.
Figure – Humanoid Robots on the Frontier of Labor Automation
Figure is an ambitious robotics startup developing general-purpose humanoid robots designed to work alongside (or in place of) humans in various manual labor roles.
Mission and Founding: The company was founded in 2022 by Brett Adcock, a serial entrepreneur who co-founded Archer Aviation. Adcock started Figure with a clear mission – to “liberate humans from manual labor and enhance global productivity.” Frustrated by labor shortages and inspired by advances in AI and electric motors, he invested $100 million of his own money to get the venture off the ground. Figure’s vision refers to science fiction: human-sized robots that can eventually do “unsafe and undesirable jobs,” allowing people to focus on higher-level or creative tasks. In the company’s early days, a small team of engineers in Sunnyvale, California, set an audacious goal: build a bipedal, autonomous humanoid that can walk and perform basic work tasks within one year of founding. By mid-2023, Figure 01, the prototype, was indeed walking, and the company began showcasing its potential in simple scenarios. In an industry known for broken promises, Figure’s rapid prototyping and high-profile backers (attracting talent from places like Boston Dynamics and Tesla) distinguished it. Over 2023–2024, Figure evolved from a concept on paper to delivering actual robots for pilot programs. The introduction of Figure 02 – a refined second-generation humanoid – demonstrated notable improvements in dexterity and autonomy, signaling the company’s iterative approach to reaching its ultimate goal: a general-purpose robot for everyday environments.
Technology and Business Model: Figure’s business model is still emerging (as the company remains pre-revenue), but it centers on developing humanoid robots that can be deployed in the workforce as a service or product. In the near term, Figure targets commercial applications like warehouse logistics, manufacturing, and retail fulfillment – domains where labor needs are high and the environments can be semi-structured. The idea is that a Figure humanoid could be “dropped in” to a warehouse and trained to perform repetitive tasks such as lifting and stacking boxes, pushing carts, or packaging goods. Unlike task-specific industrial robots, Figure’s robots are meant to be multipurpose and adaptable, which is a key differentiator. They utilize advanced AI models for vision and motor control, aiming to learn a variety of tasks rather than being pre-programmed for only one. “We believe general-purpose humanoid robots have far more potential than single-purpose robots,” says Adcock, contrasting Figure’s approach with robots confined to just cleaning floors or just assembling one part. Technologically, Figure integrates cutting-edge hardware (actuators, sensors, batteries) with a proprietary AI software stack named Helix that combines vision, language understanding, and motor skills. Helix uses a two-part “brain” – a slower reasoning module and a fast reaction module – to enable the robot to plan tasks and respond in real-time to changes. The combination handles complex, unstructured functions like picking up various objects or responding to voice commands in a home setting. For revenue, Figure is likely to pursue a Robots-as-a-Service model, charging companies a usage or rental fee for each robot deployed rather than selling multimillion-dollar units outright. This would make humanoid labor more akin to hiring a temp worker – a compelling pitch if the robots prove effective. In February 2025, the company even hinted at plans to eventually put humanoids in homes for domestic chores, which could open a vast consumer market. For now, its business strategy is focused on vertical integration: owning the design and production of the robots and controlling the AI that powers them to ensure the pieces work seamlessly together. This is resource-intensive, but Figure’s leadership and investors believe that a full-stack approach is necessary to crack the challenge that no one has solved – a commercially viable humanoid.
Recent Funding and Valuation: Despite being nascent, Figure has attracted staggering levels of investor funding, underscoring the excitement around its frontier technology. In May 2023, the company raised $70 million in a Series A led by Parkway Venture Capital (with Adcock contributing $20 million), reportedly valuing the one-year-old startup at over $400 million. That was just the beginning. By early 2024, rumors swirled – later confirmed – that Figure secured a $675 million Series B round, valuing the company at $2.6 billion. This investor syndicate was a who’s who of tech: participants included Microsoft, OpenAI’s Startup Fund, Nvidia, Amazon Industrial Innovation Fund, Jeff Bezos (through Bezos Expeditions), Parkway Venture Capital, Intel Capital, and ARK Invest. The round, announced in February 2024, is one of the largest ever for a robotics startup, giving Figure a war chest to accelerate development. With this raise, Figure’s total funding exceeded $800 million within two years of founding. Industry observers noted that such “mega-funding” reflects both the high capital needs of humanoid robotics and the fervor surrounding AI advancements. By early 2025, Figure’s valuation was reportedly climbing further amid talks of additional strategic investment – one report suggested the company was in discussions to raise as much as $1.5 billion at an eye-popping $10+$ billion valuation (though such a deal hasn’t been publicly confirmed). Clearly, Figure has quickly become one of the best-funded private robotics companies ever. The influx of capital is being poured into scaling up its operations: hiring talent (the team has grown to around 80+ employees), building manufacturing and testing facilities, and iterating on hardware prototypes. As of 2025, the company is still pre-commercial, so traditional metrics like revenue or profitability are not applicable – its value is based on technology milestones and strategic partnerships. One tangible milestone: by late 2024, Figure delivered its first robots to a paying commercial customer (BMW) for pilot testing on an assembly line. If expanded, this kind of early customer validation will be crucial to justify the sky-high valuations and convert them into sustainable business value.
Growth Trajectory and Milestones: In just a short time, Figure has moved fast and set an aggressive roadmap. A central proof point was the successful demonstration of Figure 02 robots working at a BMW auto factory in South Carolina. During these trials (the first time BMW used humanoid robots in production), the Figure 02 units autonomously picked up sheet metal parts and placed them into fixtures for assembly tasks that require fine motor control and awareness of dynamic environments. This showed that Figure’s robots could handle real-world industrial materials with “particular tactile capabilities,” as BMW’s production chief noted. Building on this, Brett Adcock announced that Figure plans to produce 100,000 humanoid robots in the next few years – an eye-opening target that equates to scaling manufacturing at an exponential rate.
To manage growth, Figure wisely focuses on a few key clients and use cases initially. “Early on, it’s more efficient for us to grow vertically within a few clients than to spread out across many,” Adcock explained. This strategy means that Figure will deepen deployments (more robots per site and solving multiple tasks for one client) with partners like BMW and potentially a couple of large warehouse operators or retailers, rather than signing up dozens of customers without delivering full value. It effectively makes those initial clients testbeds for refining the robot in different scenarios. In parallel, the technology is rapidly advancing: Figure 02 reportedly has three times the computing power of its predecessor and improved hands nearing human hand dexterity (16 degrees of freedom). The robots are becoming more power-efficient and capable of longer autonomous operation, critical for commercial viability so they can work long shifts. The company’s AI stack, Helix ,also leaped by decoupling from a prior partnership with OpenAI and developing entirely in-house, indicating Figure wants complete control over the “brains” of its robots. Market-wise, global interest in automation is only growing: labor shortages in warehousing, an aging workforce in many countries, and recent supply chain disruptions have all made companies eager for robotic solutions. The Figure appears to be riding this wave, frequently cited alongside efforts by Tesla (Optimus robot) and others as leading a “race to develop the next commercially viable humanoid robot.” If it hits its milestones, Figure could, within a few years, have hundreds of robots performing valuable work, which would mark a historic inflection point in the robotics industry. Its stated long-term goal is nothing short of bringing a general-purpose humanoid into everyday life, perhaps akin to the personal computer revolution but for embodied AI. While that endgame might be a decade away, the current growth steps – securing big partners, improving capabilities, and scaling production – are the building blocks. One should note that growth for a company like Figure is not measured just in revenue but in the performance metrics of the robots: more tasks are mastered, the mean time between failures is improved, and greater autonomy is achieved. The progress from a walking prototype to completing pilot programs in under two years is impressive by those measures.
Competitive Landscape and Market Trends: The quest for humanoid robots has several players, but Figure has quickly emerged as a leading player. Competitors include well-known robotics firms such as Boston Dynamics (famous for its Atlas humanoid, though it’s still in R&D with no commercial offering) and newer startups like Agility Robotics, 1X Technologies, and Apptronik, all of which are developing humanoid or semi-humanoid robots targeting logistics. Tesla announced a humanoid project (Optimus) in 2021 and demonstrated early prototypes, leveraging its expertise in manufacturing and AI. Each competitor has a slightly different approach: for example, Agility’s Digit robot is bipedal but with limited arms, focusing on warehouse tote lifting; 1X developed a humanoid with wheels for efficiency; Tesla aims to eventually use its robots in its factories. Figure’s competitive edge appears to be the breadth of its vision, combined with substantial funding and partners. Unlike Boston Dynamics’ approach of pushing the envelope of agility (often in awe-inspiring demos), Figure is very market-focused, targeting practical tasks and cost-effectiveness. Tesla’s Elon Musk projected that Optimus could cost under $20,000 per unit in a few years, and Figure will likely need to hit a similar price point or service cost to compete in replacing human labor (for reference, a human worker might cost $30k–$50k/year fully loaded in a warehouse job). The market trend strongly favoring Figure and its peers is the widespread labor shortage and rising labor costs in logistics, e-commerce fulfillment, elder care, and manufacturing. Developed countries face demographic pressures (aging populations, fewer young workers for physically demanding jobs), and globally, there’s greater reluctance to do repetitive manual work if better opportunities exist. This translates to a huge potential demand for robotic labor.
Additionally, the technology trend of AI advancement (particularly in vision and reinforcement learning) is making what was impossible now feasible – robots can see and make decisions much better than a decade ago, thanks to deep learning. Cloud computing and custom AI chips (like those from Nvidia, an investor in Figure) allow running sophisticated models on the robot or with low latency. One competitive challenge is that traditional industrial robot companies (Fanuc, ABB, etc.) provide proven machines for specific tasks (like robotic arms for welding or palletizing). Humanoids won’t replace those well-optimized solutions; instead, they will compete to do tasks that still require human versatility. So, the market might not be winner-take-all – it’s more about expanding automation into new frontiers. Figure has signaled it will focus on certain domains first (like logistics) and not spread itself too thin. That focus is wise because the competitive field will determine who can deliver results in a given application. If Agility’s biped excels in stockroom shelf restocking but Figure’s robot shines in parcel sorting, each could find its niche. Investor sentiment is another factor: with heavyweights like Amazon and Microsoft betting on different companies (Amazon in Agility, Microsoft in Figure), multiple parties believe humanoids are coming of age. This validates the market but also sets up a race. Figure’s partnership with BMW hints it may have an edge in automotive manufacturing use cases, while others might pursue retail warehouse deals (Agility works with Ford, for instance). A noteworthy trend is the convergence of AI and robotics – companies like OpenAI (an investor previously allied with Figure) are interested in training AI agents in physical form. If Figure’s platform becomes a leading physical instantiation of advanced AI, it could attract an ecosystem of software developers or content (like how apps emerged once smartphones became ubiquitous). In summary, the competitive landscape is dynamic: Figure is currently among the frontrunners due to its funding, vision, and early achievements, but competition will intensify as technology matures. The next few years – moving from prototypes to actual deployed fleets – will likely determine which companies secure the biggest partnerships and break the commercialization barrier.
Risks and Challenges: Pursuing a dream as grand as general-purpose humanoid robots comes with substantial risks. The first is technical risk: despite progress, creating a robot with human-like versatility and reliability is difficult. Humanoids must integrate locomotion, manipulation, perception, and real-time decision-making. There’s a risk that some tasks remain too hard or the robots can’t operate for long periods without human intervention or maintenance. For instance, maintaining balance while carrying awkward loads or handling unpredictable objects (a squishy bag vs. a metal part) requires extremely robust AI and engineering.
Any high-profile failures or safety incidents (e.g., a robot dropping a part or colliding with a person) could set back confidence and adoption. Cost and scalability are also challenges – even with hundreds of millions in funding, Figures must be designed for cost efficiency to hit unit economics that makes sense. It’s one thing to build a few $1M prototypes; it’s another to mass-produce robots cheaply. This entails supply chain management for actuators, sensors, and chips that are not yet commoditized. There’s a risk that costs don’t drop as fast as anticipated, which would limit deployment or force a different pricing model. Conversely, if demand outstrips their manufacturing ability (a “good” problem, but still a problem), managing rapid scale-up could strain operations. Another risk is talent competition – AI robotics is hot, and retaining top scientists and engineers is crucial. Figure’s investors and excitement give it an edge in hiring, but it competes with well-funded peers and big companies’ robotics labs for the same pool of experts. Market adoption risk also looms: some industries may resist humanoid robots for cultural or practical reasons. Companies might initially hesitate to trust expensive robots with critical operations, or labor unions might push back against job displacement. The Figure must demonstrate capability, reliability, and safety to win over skeptics. Public perception is another challenge – while society is fascinated by humanoids, there are fears (often exaggerated) about robots “taking jobs” or even concerns about AI control. Figure has to navigate the narrative carefully, emphasizing augmentation of labor rather than pure replacement, to gain public acceptance. In intellectual property, there’s a risk of patent or trade secrets issues; competitors like Boston Dynamics have patents on certain locomotion technologies. A misstep could lead to legal challenges. Lastly, the company is subject to the classic startup risk of execution: aligning its bold promises with delivery. Expectations are sky-high, given the funding and statements. If Figure were to fall short or be significantly delayed (which has happened historically in robotics), it could face a credibility hit that makes fundraising or sales harder. In sum, while Figure has momentum, it must overcome a convergence of robotics’s hardest problems – technical, economic, and social – to fully succeed.